Tuesday 29 January 2013

My Watchlist

So, we are at 20K again.
A lot of stocks are making lifetime highs and are selling at high multiples.
Gone are the days when you could find Mayur, Amara Raja, Cera, RS Software, Ajanta Pharma at prices at which you get the growth for free.

Life is tough these days if you are a Value Investor!!!

However, there are some stocks which haven't moved in past 1 year due to some temporary issues but are good business to own in the long run. I believe its worth looking at them when the issue is there rather than after the issue is solved & the stock price has moved up.

So, here are two of them-

1) GRP Ltd- GRP is the largest reclaim rubber manufacturer in Asia & third largest in the world. It has done exceedingly well with
5 Years Sales CAGR : 22.67% &  5 Years Profit CAGR: 21.55% with 30+ ROE.
http://www.screener.in/company/?q=509152

 
Last 3-4 quarters haven't been good due to increase in raw material costs & capex plans. However, this is giving a good opportunity to enter.
 
2) DFM Foods- DFM is an FMCG company into snack food manufacturing. Crax & Natkhat brands belong to DFM.
5 Years Sales CAGR : 33.67% & 5 Years Profit CAGR: 84.41% with 30+ ROE.
 
Last 3-4 quarters haven't been good due to expansion outside Northern India & capex and debt associated with it. However, this is giving a good opportunity to enter.
 
P.S- Please do your own due diligence. Also I am expecting recent quarterly results to be bad & stocks may correct a bit from current prices.

5 comments:

  1. nah,the spinoff and turnaround train still got plenty ofg ravy for the unconstrained and willing analyst
    have a look(just a starting point for somebody "bathing" in the afterglow of yet another re reading of you can be a stock market genius too)
    http://www.bseindia.com/corporates/corporate_act.aspx?expandable=0

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  2. Hi JK,

    How big is the snack food market in India? and what percentage of market share does crax/natkhat hold?

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  3. DFM seems to have corrected! :D

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    1. Hi Prashanth,

      DFM only has 2-3% of North India snacks market. They are just enetering into East & West..

      Yes it has corrected as I was expecting. But sales fell QoQ in Q3 which was their strong quarter. Also Kurkure has come out with a Corn version which may have a direct effect on Crax.
      So, I am waiting for more clarity as of now.
      What do you say?

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    2. Hi JK,

      I wanted to taste Crax while I dive into the details of the business.
      Yes, this 'touch & feel' might sound awkward and perhaps have nothing to do with the financials at all. Vividity bias?!
      Only later did I realize that it wasn't available in Bangalore (I must have looked at ten different stores!).
      Further I do not know how they cut the deals with the distributors and in turn with the stores. Meaning, any new company entices stores to stock their product by promising higher margins and 'buyback' of leftover stock!
      Yes, wait and watch seems a prudent thing to do now.

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