Tuesday, 24 May 2011

A better deal than Prof. Bakshi's

All those of you who know (or have even heard of) Prof. Sanjay Bakshi would (& should) be wondering how a novice like me can boast of offering you a better deal (in the stock market) than the prof himself.
And for those of you who don't know him read this and then start wondering!!!

But, I still say, I will give you better deal (investment operation) in this post. Don't believe me? Read further....

I hereby present to you India's largest cash bargain- Piramal Healthcare. Just click here and read. I don't need to give more details (I even don't have).

Developments after the post-
Since this post is 2 months old, there have been some interesting developments in this case-
  1. Piramal life's research division will be merged with Piramal health.
  2. Acquisition of Indiareit Fund & Indiareit Investment Management.
  3. Plan to start NBFC.
  4. Announced dividend of Rs 12 per share.
For complete details- Read this.

But overall the opportunity is still UU (unknown & unknowable) in terms of exact capital allocation, business strategy, M&A plans and the resulting bottom line due to all this. But still it has enough margin of safety in terms of cash per share and promoter's track record.

Back to the Title-
Hey! Remember the title of this post? So I copy paste Prof. Bakshi's post and claim that my deal is better!!! Right????
No my investment operation is better because I give you a hefty discount of 17.3%. (He was offering you Piramal at 450/-..... I am giving at just 372/- )

Remember an investment has two things-
  • Business
  • Price that you pay for the business.
Business that I am offering {as if I own that business :-)} is same but I am giving a huge discount of 17.3%. (This discount number of 17.3% is exactly what I don't want you to focus on. This is just an anchoring bias. The basic idea is that Piramal Health has become a bigger bargain than it was at the time of Prof's post. It can fall even more from here but it may not. Who knows!!)

So, if in next few years (3 to 5 or may be 7) Piramal Health turns out to be a huge success, my followers will gain more than Bakshi Sir's followers. But if Piramal flops or runs away with shareholders' money, my followers will lose less than Bakshi Sir's followers.

Heads I win, tails Prof Bakshi loses!!!!

6 comments:

  1. Hi JK,
    I am visiting first time on your blog. I would like to know if you have any idea on what is the ex-date of dividend declared by Piramal Health. Only thing I could found was that it will be declared within five days of the AGM. Did it happen? Couldn't find it on NSE corp action section.

    Cheers,
    Sachin

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hi Sachin,

    Dividend is still pending. AGM's date seems unannounced as of now

    ReplyDelete
  3. JK - How about buying 4x shares of Piramal life (4x 90 = 360). Once the merger is done - get 1x shares of Piramal Health (current price 360) and ended up with 4x free shares of Piramal Life.

    Not sure of residual value of Piramal Life after the merger, but I guess should be more than NIL.

    Thanks
    Prashant

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hi Prashant,

    1 small hiccup makes your arb a bit less attractive- 12 Rs dividend on Piramal Health. Merger, i believe, will be much later than dividend payment.

    ReplyDelete
  5. JK - Noted. Once the dividend is paid, does this arb make sense?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  6. Yes. But, then, how much money ll be left on the table for this arb?

    ReplyDelete